Monday, December 19, 2011

We Now Resume Our Regular Scheduled Programing: Crate Odds

Recently we covered the differences found in Tannhauser Crate Tokens, and it was suggested that you could just draw an Equipment Card to determine what a character found in a crate.

However, there are two flaws with this method, and any method that does not employ the actual tokens to determine what was found. First, the crates contain both equipment, and Command Points, the cards do not. Second, the cards have one card per crate item, and this does not accurately represent the odds of drawing any given item from a crate; this problem is also caused when trying to use dice to determine what is found in a crate.

There is a whole lot of numbers after the jump…

So, what are the odds of finding a particular crate item?

If you look at the chart below I have listed all the crate tokens, how many are available, and the odds:

Crate Item

Number Available

% Chance

Fractional Odds

CP Zeros

2

3%

1/36

CP Ones

10

14%

1/7

CP Twos

6

8%

1/12

CP Threes

1

1%

1/72

MP40s

6

8%

1/12

Trench Guns

6

8%

1/12

Sten Guns

5

7%

5/72

First Aids

5

7%

5/72

Knives

5

7%

5/72

Ammos

5

7%

5/72

Pistols

4

6%

1/18

Stick Grenades

4

6%

1/18

Pineapple Grenades

3

4%

1/24

Smoke Grenades

3

4%

1/24

Fools Golds

2

3%

1/36

Bribes

2

3%

1/36

Gold Rushes

2

3%

1/36

Land Mines

1

1%

1/72

Totals

72

100%

 

Note: there are also two Crate Token that show a crate on both sides, these are usually considered empty, but they are not covered in the Revised Rules, and as so are purely optional.

So, you see the odds of getting some of the crate items is pretty low when you use all the available crate items, but if you use the cards the odds are always 1 in 14, and you can’t get any Command Points from the cards. If you use dice you need a D20, and the odds will always be 1 in 20.

Just for educational purposes, We discussed last week, that the Daedalus rules deprecated all the Crate Tokens included with the original Core Set, and Novgorod, so they are all now optional, and by not using them you eliminate the problems caused by non-matching token backs.

So what did that do to the odds?

Well take a look:

Crate Item

Number Available

% Chance

Fractional Odds

Zeros

1

2%

1/48

Ones

5

10%

1/9

Twos

3

6%

1/16

Threes

0

0%

0

MP40s

5

10%

1/9

Trench Guns

5

10%

1/9

Sten Guns

5

10%

1/9

First Aids

3

6%

1/16

Knives

3

6%

1/16

Ammos

3

6%

1/16

Pistols

2

4%

1/24

Stick Grenades

2

4%

1/24

Pineapple Grenades

3

6%

1/16

Smoke Grenades

1

2%

1/48

Fools Golds

2

4%

1/24

Bribes

2

4%

1/24

Gold Rushes

2

4%

1/24

Land Mines

1

2%

1/48

Totals

48

100%

 

Note: Again the “empty” crates where not included.

One last chart for the curious:

Crate Item

Core Set

Novogorod

Daedalus

Wolf

Hoax

Hoss

Asteros

Oksana

Natalya

Shogunate Troopers

Total

Zeros

1

 

1

             

2

Ones

3

2

5

             

10

Twos

2

1

3

             

6

Threes

 

1

 

             

2

MP40s

1

 

3

 

1

   

1

   

6

Trench Guns

 

1

1

 

1

1

1

1

   

6

Sten Guns

     

1

1

1

1

1

   

5

First Aids

1

1

3

             

5

Knives

1

1

3

             

5

Ammos

1

1

3

             

4

Pistols

1

1

2

             

4

Stick Grenades

1

1

2

             

4

Pineapple Grenades

         

1

2

     

3

Smoke Grenades

1

1

1

             

3

Fools Golds

     

1

       

1

 

2

Bribes

     

1

       

1

 

2

Gold Rushes

     

1

       

1

 

2

Land Mines

                 

1

1

"Empties"

1

 

1

             

2

Totals

14

11

28

4

3

3

4

3

3

1

74

Well I hope you all find this at least a little interesting, and I hope there’s not a bunch of Crate Tokens in the Operation: Hinansho set, so I won’t have to update all this.